Canada CAD

Canada 10-Year Bond Auction

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Actual:
2.95%
Forecast:
Previous/Revision:
3.088%
Period: Apr 2025

Next Release:

Forecast:
Period: May 2025
What Does It Measure?
The Canada 10-Year Bond Auction measures investor demand for Canadian government debt securities with a maturity of ten years. This national indicator assesses the level of interest from domestic and international investors in Canada's long-term creditworthiness by examining the yield and the bid-to-cover ratio, with higher yields usually indicating lower demand and vice versa.
Frequency
The Canada 10-Year Bond Auction typically occurs monthly or as scheduled by the Canadian government, and its results are released shortly after the auction is completed.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders care because the results of the Canada 10-Year Bond Auction can impact yields, affecting the broader interest rate environment and influencing financial conditions. Higher-than-expected demand is bullish for Canadian currency as it suggests confidence in the economy, while weak demand may lead to lower bond prices and a weaker currency outlook.
What Is It Derived From?
The results of the Canada 10-Year Bond Auction are derived from the bids submitted by participants in the auction process, which include institutional investors like banks, pension funds, and sovereign entities. The yield and bid-to-cover ratio are central indicators, with the former representing the interest rate investors demand for holding the bond, while the latter indicates the volume of bids relative to the amount available.
Description
During a Canada 10-Year Bond Auction, the Canadian government offers a set quantity of securities for purchase, and investors submit bids specifying the quantity and price they are willing to pay. A preliminary announcement may be made about the auction, but the actual auction results are not subject to the preliminary-final reporting process. The auction prices the bonds based on competitive bidding, showing real-time interest from investors, which can affect secondary market valuations and Canadian fiscal policy outlooks.
Additional Notes
The Canada 10-Year Bond Auction is considered a leading economic indicator as it can forecast economic sentiment and government borrowing costs. It is often compared to similar auctions in other developed countries to gauge relative demand for Canadian bonds versus global alternatives.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for Canadian Dollar, Bearish for Canadian Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for Canadian Dollar, Bullish for Canadian Stocks. Hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns, is usually good for the Canadian Dollar but bad for Canadian Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
2.95%
3.088%
3.088%
3.033%
3.033%
3.358%
3.358%
3.142%
3.142%
3.368%
3.368%
3.19%
3.19%
3.031%
3.031%
3.034%
3.034%
3.403%
3.403%
3.353%
3.353%
3.595%
3.595%
3.749%
3.749%
3.455%
3.455%
3.534%
3.534%
3.5%
3.5%
3.105%
3.105%
3.55%
3.55%
4.138%
4.138%
4.063%
4.063%
3.595%
3.595%
3.726%
3.726%
3.484%
3.484%
3.258%
3.258%
2.781%
2.781%
2.717%
2.717%
3.375%
3.375%
2.869%
2.869%
3.062%
3.062%
3.427%
3.427%
3.24%
3.24%
3.133%
3.133%
3.093%
3.093%
2.728%
2.728%
3.225%
3.225%
3.259%
3.259%
2.801%
2.801%
2.98%
2.98%
2.972%
2.972%
2.188%
2.188%
1.894%
1.894%
1.85%
1.85%
1.766%
1.766%
1.5%
1.5%
1.682%
1.682%
1.784%
1.784%
1.726%
1.726%
1.446%
1.446%
1.236%
1.236%
1.173%
1.173%
1.29%
1.29%
1.449%